Austin inventory climbed to about five months and mortgage rates hit a 52-week high of 7.28%. David Shapiro and Lee Abraham break down the October 2026 Austin numbers.
It's October, and we are back with another Austin real estate market update. My colleague Lee Abraham and I run the Shapiro Group here in Austin, and every month we open up the stats and walk you through what is actually happening in the numbers.
This month, the story is inventory. Listings held steady, but sales slowed down, and that pushed Austin to about five months of housing inventory. That's well above what we've seen in recent years.
Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.
We started October with 3,171 active listings. That's close enough to last month that we'll call it flat. Last September we had 3,282, so we're not far off that either. Listings normally drop as we head into winter. That's been the pattern every year.
The change is on the sales side. Only 636 homes went pending in the past 30 days. Pending sales are our most recent indicator, and right now they're also the most sluggish. Closed sales over the past month and the past three months both run higher. Divide 3,171 actives by 636 pendings and you get right at five months of inventory. So the real question for the next few months: do we pass six months before the fourth quarter turns into the first?
We also track expired and withdrawn listings now. Those are mostly discretionary sellers. They test a price, don't get it, and take the home off the market to keep leasing it or live in it a little longer. Some weeks are ending with fewer homes on the market than they started with, and new listings just dropped sharply.
When people ask us how the market is doing, we've been saying the same thing for a year: it's bifurcated. In good school districts and good family neighborhoods, the market is really strong. That isn't true of the market as a whole.
A Redfin article backs this up. Homes in highly rated school zones cost 35% more than the average US home, and Austin ranks in the top 10 for the biggest premium, at 60%. Part of the reason is scarcity. Only 20% of Austin's schools are rated 8 or higher, against a median of 30% in that data. Fort Worth is the extreme case at 8.1%. On the map, the higher median prices and the strong school ratings cluster in western Austin and out into Lakeway. There are still some highly rated schools in areas where pricing isn't as high, if you want more balance.
We don't see this premium going backwards. Families in these districts keep earning more and keep buying bigger houses. Those houses also tend to be larger, so next month we'll look at price per square foot to see how much of the gap is just size. The premium holds up as long as the population of families keeps growing, and everything we've seen says Austin's population will keep growing.
Some of the people who arrived during the pandemic tried Austin for a few years, found the summers too hot, and went home. Plenty of others stayed. We think Austin is getting back on trend for population growth and price appreciation, maybe a year or two out, with mortgage rates as the main headwind.
These numbers cover single-family homes in the City of Austin only. Many reports use the whole metro, and the suburbs haven't held up as well. Some of them added communities of a thousand-plus homes over the last five years, so supply there can swing a lot more. Most of our clients buy and sell within about 20 minutes of downtown, which is basically the city limits plus Westlake, so that's what we track.
Listings should keep falling into winter. With pending sales falling too, inventory has been climbing.
It has been worse: two years ago this month, Austin had 582 sales. Still, when someone asks us how the market is, the honest short answer is that transactions are down about 40%. We should probably be seeing something like 1,200 transactions. That gap affects nearly every other number on this page.
This doesn't match how the market feels to many people, and the reason is who's selling. With 40-plus percent of sellers sitting this market out, the people who do sell tend to have more equity. Owners who would have to sell at a loss often don't need to sell. They'd rather lease the house out, even at a small loss each month, than give up serious equity. Those lower-priced sales never close, so the average goes up.
The median price is up year over year too. It isn't an all-time high for a September, but it isn't far off. After the big run-up during the pandemic, prices have leveled off, and to us that looks like stability. It doesn't feel that way if you have to sell below what you paid, and we get that.
The monthly jump is what we expect this time of year. Last year this peaked at 77 days, and January is usually the longest month, so we'll see whether it climbs past that. For now it's a non-story.
For buyers, more listings would be great. Right now they don't have many really good options.
The 30-year mortgage rate is at 7.28%, a 52-week high. We're still better off than October 2023, when it hit 7.79%, so we're somewhere in the middle. The stock market keeps moving higher, and that could mean investors expect these higher rates won't last and oil prices will come down. We don't think the Fed will raise rates this month, although it could next month.
Rates moving higher does have one interesting effect. The closer we get to 7%, the less we need rates under 6% to restart the market. A drop back to 6.5% after a climb toward 7% would trigger more activity than if rates had sat at 6.5% the whole time. After some pain, the relief feels like an opportunity.
If you are Buying: This fall is a good time to be opportunistic. Rates are high, and most people don't want to buy or sell over the holidays, so sellers who need to sell are open to deals. The sale-to-list price ratio is up a little year over year and down a little month over month, and we wouldn't be surprised to see it keep drifting down into the first quarter. Watch for unusual deals too. We have a listing coming up soon that will be sold with a wrap, which could mean a 5% interest rate instead of 7%, in a great neighborhood. A deal like that could fit someone who just wants a better rate, or someone who has trouble qualifying for a traditional bank mortgage because they're self-employed. We also built an off-market platform and would be happy to walk you through it.
If you are Selling: If you're in a good school district, buyers want your home. Those neighborhoods are the strongest part of the market, and we need more listings there. If you're thinking about selling next year, it's still worth talking now. Even if you're 12 months out, we have those calls all the time.
Want to know what is happening on your block? Austin real estate is hyper-local, down to the zip code, the neighborhood and the specific home. If you want a deeper read on your property, reach out. Lee is a former appraiser, and there is nobody better in Austin when it comes to narrowing in on pricing. He would be happy to chat about your home and your goals.
Thanks for joining us. We will see you next month.
