It's July, and we are back with another Austin real estate market update. My colleague Lee Abraham and I run the Shapiro Group here in Austin, and every month we open up the stats and walk you through what is actually happening, not what the headlines want you to believe.
This month, the story is pending sales, and not in the direction we expected. Active listings climbed to 3,348, but 30-day pending sales came in at just 839, a number that surprised us both. That gap is nudging Austin's housing inventory back toward the four-month mark, and it is a good reminder that this market is anything but uniform block to block.
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Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.
Pending Sales Come In Lower Than Expected
The headline number this month is pending sales, and it went the wrong way. We expected the 30-day pending count to keep climbing the way it did last month, but it landed at 839, against 3,348 active listings citywide. Do the math and that puts Austin at just shy of a four-month housing inventory, technically still a seller's market on paper, even if it does not always feel that way to sellers on the ground.
As we say every month, this market is hyper-local. We are seeing pockets of town where supply is tight and homes are moving fast, and other neighborhoods and condo communities where there is simply too much competition for a seller to price aggressively. If you want to know which side of that line your block is on, reach out and we will walk you through it.
Prices Are Still Below the 2022 Peak, and Investors Are Taking Notice
The median sale price sits around $650,000, roughly 5% below the all-time high of $685,000 set back in May 2022. At the same time, the average sale price actually hit a new record for the month of June, which tells us the luxury end of the market is pulling that number up even while the middle of the market lags behind. Even the luxury tier is uneven. Lake Austin, one of Austin's premium submarkets, has been soft, while good school districts like Westlake keep commanding a premium from buyers who will stretch their budget to get their kids into the right schools.
Zoom out further and the story gets more interesting: unless you bought during the 2021 to 2022 peak, you are very likely sitting on equity, and prices from 2016 and earlier are simply not coming back. That long view is exactly why the investors we work with are treating this as a rare buying window, even with rates where they are. As Lee put it, at some point rates come down, and when they do, prices move. The only real question is timing, not whether it happens.
The July 2026 Numbers at a Glance
Active Listings & Inventory
Active listings: 3,348
30-day pending sales: 839
Monthly housing inventory: just under 4 months
Inventory is climbing back toward the seasonal peak we have seen every year for the last four years, though the timing of that peak keeps shifting year to year.
Sales Per Month
Up 5% year-over-year
Down month-over-month
Zoomed out over ten years, sales volume is still recovering from a multi-year low, and there is real room for growth as pent-up demand starts to show up in the numbers.
Median Sale Price
$650,000 median sale price
About 5% below the May 2022 all-time high of $685,000
Average sale price hit a new record for the month of June
The gap between the average and the median tells us the top of the market is outperforming the middle right now.
New Listings
Up 5% year-over-year
Down month-over-month
New listings should be climbing to keep pace with a healthy market, and the fact that they are not is a sign that both buyers and sellers are still hesitant, largely because of where mortgage rates sit.
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in the Middle of Their Range
Rates are sitting right in the middle of where they have been over the past 52 weeks. They had been trending down earlier in the year before geopolitical conflict broke out, and inflation concerns have kept them roughly flat since. We would love to see this come down, and at some point it will. The only real question is when, not if.
My Advice for July 2026
If you are Buying: Do not wait around for a bottom you will never be able to time. Historically, this kind of pricing relative to the pre-pandemic run-up does not last, and the investors we work with are treating this as a rare window while rates keep buyers on the fence.
If you are Selling: Know which side of the hyper-local line your neighborhood is on before you price. Some pockets are still moving fast with real competition; others have enough supply on hand that pricing right out of the gate matters more than usual.
Want to know what is happening on your block? Austin real estate is hyper-local, not just down to the zip code but down to the neighborhood and the specific home. If you want a deeper read on your property, reach out. Lee is a former appraiser, and there is nobody better in Austin when it comes to narrowing in on pricing. He would be happy to chat about your home and your goals.
Thanks for joining us. We will see you next month.
