Mortgage rates climbed to a 52-week high, sales activity slowed, and Austin still held steady at a four-month housing inventory. David Shapiro and Lee Abraham break down the August 2026 numbers and what they mean if you are buying or selling.
It's August, and we are back with another Austin real estate market update. My colleague Lee Abraham and I run the Shapiro Group here in Austin, and every month we open up the stats and walk you through what is actually happening, not what the headlines want you to believe.
This month, the story is a slowdown that barely showed up in the headline number. Closed sales fell from a three-month average of 901 down to 824, but listings came down right alongside them, so the market held at the same four-month inventory it has been sitting at for a while. Steady on the surface. Less so underneath.
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Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.
Sales Slowed, But Inventory Held at Four Months
There are 3,200 active single family listings in the city of Austin, with 805 pending sales over the last 30 days. That works out to a four-month housing inventory, right where we have been hovering.
The velocity is what caught our attention. Closed sales came in at 824, against a 901 monthly average over the previous three months. That is a real drop. Inventory did not move because listings fell at the same time, which holds the ratio steady while less actually happens underneath it. For reference, balanced is closer to six or six and a half months, so four still counts as a seller's market on paper. This time last year we were up near five.
The Market Is Balancing Through Expirations, Not Sales
Our listing inventory barometer tracks new listings against pending sales week by week, and it surfaced something we want to flag. There were weeks where inventory actually shrank, but not because homes sold. It shrank because listings expired or were withdrawn.
The way it was put on the call: the efficiency of the market is being achieved by failure to sell rather than by consummating a sale. That is a very different thing from a market clearing through genuine demand, and it is the part of this month's data we find least encouraging. Supply and demand lines on our chart are also sitting closer together than we would expect this early in the season. In past years that convergence has come as late as October or November.
The August 2026 Numbers at a Glance
Active Listings & Inventory
Active listings: 3,200 single family homes in the city of Austin
30-day pending sales: 805
Closed sales, past month: 824
Three-month average: 901 closed sales per month
Monthly housing inventory: four months
Lee would rather see this closer to five months. More choice for buyers, more velocity for the market, and less chance of the artificial price spikes that happen when good listings are scarce.
Sales Per Month
824 closed sales
Up year-over-year
In context, that is the highest sales count for the month of July in four or five years. Sales up over a multi-year span while inventory stays flat is the pent-up demand we keep pointing at.
Average Sale Price
Up year-over-year
The second highest average sale price the city of Austin has ever printed for the month of July
The median went the other way and was down year-over-year. Lee's honest read is that he is not sure you can draw much from the median this month, because it only loosely mirrors what the average is doing. What we would say is that when the average holds up better than the median, the luxury end is usually carrying more of the weight. The wealth effect is real right now. A lot of high-end buyers are sitting on portfolios that have had a very good year.
Days to Sell
Down slightly month-over-month
Look back across the past several years on our chart and every single year the move from June to July goes upward, meaning homes take longer to sell. This year it went the other way. When good listings hit the market, they are moving.
New Listings
Up a small amount year-over-year
Down month-over-month
The month-over-month drop is normal seasonality. We would like to see this number higher though. Thin new-listing counts make life harder for buyers, and Lee would rather the market balance itself through sales than through scarcity.
Sale Price to List Price Ratio
Below 98%
Up slightly year-over-year, down slightly month-over-month
We want to see this above 98% before calling the market back to a stable, appreciating normal. Up year-over-year and down month-to-month is a wash, so no real news here.
Mortgage Rates Hit a 52-Week High
Rates are at a 52-week high of 6.69% on a 30-year fixed. Still below the 7.79% peak we saw a few years ago, but not moving in the direction anyone wants. Back in February we were below 6%, so this is a significant climb in a short window.
What is driving it: the Fed has held the federal funds rate steady, though there is talk they might raise it at the September meeting. The war in Iran is pushing oil prices up, that feeds inflation fear, and investors respond by demanding higher bond yields. Mortgage rates track the 10-year treasury fairly closely, so it all funnels through.
Watch the 7% line. Once rates get above it, the psychological effect on buyers is like a cold shower. Hovering around six and a half is workable, close to 6% you will see activity spike, and below 6% is a whole different ballgame.
My Advice for August 2026
If you are Buying: This is the window. Days on market are down, inventory has leveled off at a lower number than we have seen in a couple of years, and rates are the one variable most likely to change everything. When they come down, demand moves faster than supply can respond, because it is far quicker to jump in as a buyer than to get a house ready to list. Establish your equity position before that happens. One caveat: a lot of inventory is trading before it ever reaches the MLS, so make sure your agent can actually see it.
If you are Selling: If you have the flexibility to wait, this may be worth thinking about. This could be the bottom, and next year could serve you better. That said, it is a lifestyle decision first and a financial one second. If you have somewhere better to put that money, selling now can be exactly right. We are very used to talking these through with clients, and often the honest answer is that it is not the time to sell.
Want to know what is happening on your block? Austin real estate is hyper-local, not just down to the zip code but down to the neighborhood and the specific home. If you want a deeper read on your property, reach out. Lee is a former appraiser, and there is nobody better in Austin when it comes to narrowing in on pricing. He would be happy to chat about your home and your goals.
Thanks for joining us. We will see you next month.
