June brought a quiet first for Austin: the average sale price held flat year over year, even as a 3.4-month supply keeps it technically a seller's market. David Shapiro and Lee Abraham break down the June 2026 numbers and what they mean for the back half of the year.
It's June, and we are back with another Austin real estate market update. I'm David Shapiro, and my colleague Lee Abraham and I are local agents here in Austin. Every month we pull up the stats and walk you through what is actually happening in the market, not what the headlines want you to believe.
This month, the story is a milestone we have not seen before. For the first time we can remember, the average sale price held flat year over year, neither up nor down. Underneath that number, the data points to a market that is technically a seller's market and looks like it may be picking up speed heading into summer.
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Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.
Technically, It's a Seller's Market
We started June with about 3,220 active listings, right where seasonality says we should be as more homes come on through the spring and summer. What matters is how that supply meets demand. Over the past 30 days there were 1,048 pending sales. Run the math and that works out to roughly a 3.4-month supply of homes.
By the textbook, anything under about six months is a seller's market, and a balanced market sits closer to 6 to 6.5 months. So at 3.4 months, Austin is technically a seller's market, even a bit of a shortage. The catch is that it does not feel that way to a lot of sellers, and that is mostly psychology. Back in 2020 and 2021, sellers were getting offers above what they thought their home was worth. Today they are often getting offers below their 2022 high, so it is harder to let go. The market is stable. What has really moved is the anchor in people's heads.
Demand is speeding up, too. Closed sales have been accelerating the more recent you look: about 728 a month averaged over the past year, 857 a month over the past three months, and 917 in the past 30 days. When each window comes in stronger than the last, the pace is building, not fading, as we head into the back half of the year.
A First: The Average Price Held Flat Year Over Year
Here is the milestone we flagged at the top. For the first time we can recall, the average sale price did not move year over year. It was up month over month, which is normal spring seasonality, but flat compared to a year ago. Measured against the May 2022 peak of about $914K, the average is down roughly 7%.
The median tells a slightly different story. It is down a little year over year, and from its $730K all-time high it is off about 14%, roughly $100K. When the median falls further from its peak than the average does, it usually points to one thing: the luxury end of the market is holding up well and pulling the average up with it.
Step back ten years and the through-line is stability. Prices peaked in 2022 and eased, but nowhere near back to where they started, so if you bought into this steady-appreciation market you still have equity. For anyone waiting for the other shoe to drop, remember what is different from 2008. Most owners hold 30-year fixed-rate loans, so their payments are not changing no matter what rates do, and the unemployment rate is low, so people can keep paying. That is why a sudden drop in Austin prices is hard to see from here.
Where It's Still Clearly a Seller's Market: Mueller
Austin is hyper-local, and Mueller is the clearest example right now. At the upper end, homes over $1.2 to $1.3 million, we are seeing the kind of demand that feels like the peak of the frenzy, with a lot of it happening off market. When we searched active listings in Mueller over 2,500 square feet, there were none. The buyers tend to be career-driven 30- and 40-somethings starting families who want walkability, strong schools, and that close-knit, family-friendly feel. It is a good reminder that even in a market that does not feel hot to everyone, there are pockets where it absolutely is.
The June 2026 Numbers at a Glance
Active Listings & Inventory
Active listings: ~3,200 (started the month at 3,220)
30-day pending sales: 1,048
Monthly housing inventory: 3.4 months, technically a seller's market
Inventory is ticking up with normal summer seasonality. Last June it was closer to 5 months, so we are well below that, and a move up from here would be nothing out of the ordinary.
Sales Per Month
917 closed sales in the past 30 days
857 a month over the past 3 months
728 a month averaged over the past 12 months
Velocity is the real story. Each more-recent window is stronger than the one before it, which is exactly what an accelerating market looks like.
Average & Median Sale Price
Average price: flat year over year (a first), up month over month, about 7% below the May 2022 peak of $914K
Median price: down slightly year over year, about $100K (roughly 14%) below its $730K all-time high
The gap between the two tells us the high end is still moving. All figures are single-family homes in the city of Austin.
Days to Sell
43 days
Up slightly year over year (from 42), down month over month
That is right in line with seasonality. If June drops below 40 into the 30s, that would be a strong signal for a busier second half of the year.
New Listings
Down year over year, down about 12% month over month
Fewer new listings is a big reason inventory stays tight. A lot of would-be sellers have low fixed-rate loans and simply do not have to move, so they lease the house instead. New listings staying flat rather than climbing is itself a sign of a stronger seller's market than it feels like.
Mortgage Rates Hover Around 6.5%
We hit 5.98% back on February 26, with rates trending down and the market feeling hot. Then geopolitical tension in the Middle East pushed them up, and we are now hovering in the mid-6% range, around 6.5%. Week over week they are down a touch, and they are down year over year. Zoom out five years and we are still below 2023 levels, so it is not bad, just not the downhill run we had been on. As always, getting under 6% is the psychological line that tends to pull buyers off the sidelines. Honestly, the market feels surprisingly strong given where rates are, so it will be very interesting to see what happens when they finally come down.
My Advice for Summer 2026
If you are Buying: Get out there now. Rates are not under 6% yet, but the market feels strong even at these levels, and the moment they drop you will be competing with everyone who has been waiting on the sidelines. Get familiar with what is listed and how fast it is moving so you can act when the right home shows up, especially in the hot pockets where the best inventory is selling off market.
If you are Selling: Do not let the "it does not feel like a seller's market" mood fool you. At a 3.4-month supply, with sales velocity accelerating and new listings down, the fundamentals are on your side right now. If you price it right, this is a good window, particularly at the upper end and in walkable, school-strong neighborhoods.
Want to know what is happening on your block? Austin real estate is hyper-local, not just down to the zip code but down to the neighborhood and the specific home, as Mueller shows. If you want a deeper read on your property, reach out. Lee is a former appraiser, and there is nobody better in Austin when it comes to narrowing in on pricing. He would be happy to chat about your home and your goals.
Thanks for joining us. We will see you next month.
