It’s October, and my colleague Lee Abraham and I have another market update for you on Austin real estate.
This month’s data reveals a continuing cool-down but also a few interesting trends that could signal a change on the horizon.
Keep reading below for more information.
Table of Contents
Full October 2025 Update
Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.
Active Listings Trend
The number of active listings is coming down for the third month in a row.
It was looking like a heck of a peak a couple of months ago, and it’s starting to come down as seasonality continues.
Housing Inventory
At the beginning of October, there were 3,282 active listings of single-family homes in the city of Austin.
We can look at this number in the context of recent sales to understand our housing supply.
- Over the past 30 days, there were 717 pending sales.
- When we divide the active listings by the pending sales, it translates to about a 4.5 or 4.6-month housing inventory.
- If we were to base it on closed sales from the past month (679), we’d be looking more like a five-month inventory.
For our purposes, we’re right at about a four-and-a-half-month housing inventory, which is stable compared to last month.
Sales Per Month
The number of sales per month is up 17% year-over-year but down 10% month-to-month.
This trend continues with a very low number of sales. If you go back and watch our “Trends Don’t Lie” video, you’ll see that if the historical trendline had continued, we’d be looking at around 17,000 sales per year. Instead, we’re probably going to end this year around 10,000.
It’s a huge drop-off in the number of transactions that are happening, and everybody’s feeling that.
Average Sale Price
The average sale price saw a significant drop month-to-month, down 7.3%. Year-over-year is also down, just under 3%. This is to be expected when going from August to September.
Last month, we made a bold statement about timing the market and whether it was at the bottom. This is more directional than specific, but this latest statistic may be the bottom. The question now lingers for a second month: Is this the bottom? We’ll see. Anecdotally, I was at a party the other day and heard someone say, “I feel like I should be buying a house right now.” People are getting that sense.
Days To Sell
Days to sell are up 6.3% both year-over-year and month-over-month. This is not that surprising to see it go a little bit up in September as people are getting back to school and things generally pick up a little bit in the fall before the holidays.
Sale-to-List Ratio
The sale price to list price ratio is another potential canary in the coal mine. While it’s down 0.6% year-over-year, it’s actually up 0.3% month-over-month. This has not been the case for a bit now. So the average price is down, but the sale price to list price ratio is slightly tickling up. Again, this is a potential indicator of a bottom.
New Listings Data
The number of new listings is up 1.3% both year-over-year and month-over-month, showing not much of a big change here. This is the second statistic where the year-over-year and month-to-month figures are exactly the same number.
Inventory Barometer
Our Listing Inventory Barometer gives you real-time data by factoring in not just new listings and pending sales, but also expired and withdrawn listings. This is a proprietary piece of data that Lee put together, and it shows the absolute net growth or retraction of inventory each week. We’ve had an actual reduction in the number of active listings, and the high number of expired and withdrawn listings is the large reason why. It shows that discretionary sellers who can time the market are choosing to pull their homes, perhaps to rent them out or wait for a better time.
Mortgage Rate Update
This is a big talking point.
Last month, we reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.5%. It is now down a bit to 6.34% as of the beginning of October.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is also down slightly to 5.55%. This follows the Fed cutting rates for the first time in a year.
While it’s not a big enough move to entice a lot of buyers yet, it’s a step in the right direction.
Conclusion
To sum it up, the Austin real estate market continues to show signs of cooling, with lower sales volume and a drop in average prices. However, subtle indicators like a slight month-over-month increase in the sale-to-list price ratio and a dip in mortgage rates suggest that we could be approaching a market bottom. Discretionary sellers are pulling back, which is keeping inventory from ballooning and helping to stabilize the market.
My colleague Lee and I provide these updates monthly to keep you informed about the trends affecting Austin real estate. Using a data-driven approach, we help buyers and sellers navigate the complexities of the current market.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to us.
